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November 18, 2020

CT outmigration continued pre-pandemic

HBJ File Photo Downtown Hartford skyline.
By Greg Bordonaro

While Connecticut has become a hot spot for New York City residents fleeing to the suburbs amid the pandemic, the state once again lost population last year, although fewer residents left the state compared to 2018.

Connecticut lost a net of 15,199 residents in 2019, new U.S. Census data show. That compares to a net loss of nearly 30,000 residents in 2018, which was one of the highest outmigrations Connecticut experienced over the last decade.

Overall, 90,044 people moved into Connecticut in 2019 from another state, while 105,243 Connecticut residents moved elsewhere, Census data show.

In 2018, 84,718 people moved into Connecticut from another state, while 114,235 Connecticut residents moved elsewhere.

Connecticut has consistently lost population over the last decade, shedding a net of 178,572 residents since 2010.

However, it will be interesting to see how the COVID-19 pandemic impacts the state’s population trends. The movement of people out of New York City to Connecticut has been well documented in recent months, and the state’s residential real estate market has been red hot of late. 

In October, the Hartford metro area’s home sales volume, compared with a year prior, grew 41.3%, which was the largest increase of 52 markets across the country, according to the latest monthly RE/MAX National Housing Report.

Ironically, Connecticut lost the most residents in 2019 to New York -- 15,040.

The other top states Connecticut residents moved to last year included: Florida (13,227), Massachusetts (11,690), North Carolina (5,840), Pennsylvania (4,853) and California (4,067).

That data runs counter to the popular narrative that people are fleeing Connecticut for only lower-tax states. 

And the reasons for their departure are varied. Some people are looking for lower-cost destinations, but others are also looking for warmer climates and/or a different culture, especially as more Connecticut residents reach retirement age and no longer have a job in the state.

The large number of people moving to high-tax states likely indicates people are chasing new job opportunities, among other potential reasons. 

However, it should be noted that Connecticut used to be a tax haven back in the 1980s, before the state enacted its income tax, with people and companies moving here from high-tax states like New York.

That competitive advantage has been eroded over the last few decades, making it less painful for tax-conscious citizens to cross the border into a higher-tax state like New York.  
 

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