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April 15, 2020

Health professionals: COVID-19 peak on horizon, vaccine key 

PHOTO | File image Yale New Haven Hospital.
By Michelle Tuccitto Sullo

The New Haven region is expected to reach its peak in COVID-19 cases late next week, according to staff in the Yale New Haven Health system.

Tom Balcezak, MD, chief clinical officer, indicated in a Tuesday afternoon press conference that current projections show the New Haven region will reach its peak around April 20-23, though he cautioned that this could change.

A key question for the business community is when things might return to normal. Gov. Ned Lamont has closed schools and extended the shutdown of non-essential businesses through May 20.

Lamont indicated Tuesday that the state has had 13,989 individuals test positive for the virus, with 671 fatalities. 

Marna Borgstrom, CEO of Yale New Haven Health, reported Tuesday that there were more than 700 current in-patients who have tested positive in the system’s facilities, which include Yale, Bridgeport and Greenwich hospitals. The system’s hospitals in eastern Connecticut and Rhode Island haven’t been impacted as much, she said. 

“We are not yet at the peak of this illness,” said Balcezak. “We are starting to see some slowing in the rate of growth.” 

He estimated social distancing will need to continue for at least another month.

“From a clinical perspective, the more we delay moving to normalcy, the more we help prevent the chance of a second bump in cases,” Balcezak said. “Until we have a vaccine, we are all at risk. There are no known proven therapies that work against this virus.” 

When asked if people are protected if they have antibodies, Balcezak said this is a subject of ongoing research.

“We need to understand whether antibodies lead to eventual immunity,” he said. “The cure for this disease is a vaccine and immunity. The only thing now to keep the community safe is social distancing, until there is a vaccine.”

Yale and a number of area companies have been pursuing the development of vaccines and treatments for the disease, including Kleo Pharmaceuticals, CaroGen, Protein Sciences and NanoViricides. 

Yale University researchers study antibodies among YNHH staff, patients 

Meanwhile, Yale scientists have been giving COVID-19 patients and health-care workers at Yale New Haven Hospital blood tests to detect antibodies to the virus, according to a university announcement.

Researchers hope to learn more about the virus, particularly whether people who have been exposed are immune to reinfection, as is the case with strains of the flu. Information from the antibody tests could potentially help in the development of vaccines.

Yale’s Albert Ko, department chair and professor of epidemiology and of medicine, said, “We want to know what proportion of people were infected and if antibodies protect you from reinfection.”

According to the announcement, if there is immunity, policymakers may be able to relax social distancing guidelines for people who have these antibodies. This would allow people to reenter the workforce and help restore the economy.

Not all virus exposure prompts immunity — take the common cold, for example. 

“We need to know what drives protective responses to the virus to help spur vaccine development,” Ko said.

Non-Covid patients, equipment and blood 

Yale officials indicated Tuesday they currently have adequate personal protection equipment for staff, enough ventilators to care for current patients and an adequate number of beds. 

Officials have noticed a puzzling non-COVID-19 trend: According to Balcezak, the census of general patients across all hospitals has gone down during the crisis, such as patients they normally see for strokes and heart attacks.

“This has led us to wonder: Where are these people? Are they coming in later, dying at home? There is no good answer as to ‘why?’ yet,” Balcezak said. 

The hospital system has seen an uptick in trauma with the warmer weather, however. Officials noted that people have been hesitant about venturing out to give blood, but blood donations are needed. 

“Our blood supply is challenged,” Balcezak said. 

Contact Michelle Tuccitto Sullo at msullo@newhavenbiz.com.

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